West Playing Into Putin’s Hands

Unlike all of our leaders, Vlad Putin is not a nice man. Unlike most of our leaders, Vlad Putin is a shrewd character adept at pulling the levers of power.

When Russia goaded that idiot Saakashvili into bombarding South Ossetia and then retaliated by invading Georgia and, later, recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, our leaders turned bright red and damn near blew up. Russia wasn’t going to get away with that, no sir. Why, Russia would feel the sting of our sanctions and, better yet, we were going to boot it right out of the G8 too! That’d set Moscow a reeling.

Or not.

Putin, it seems, has the measure of Russia’s vulnerability to Western retaliation – right down to the last kopek. He knows that the consequences, if they materialize at all, will be insignificant compared to the popularity he’ll enjoy at home – where it matters.

This isn’t just about Georgia or the autonomy of these two, small states. No, it’s much bigger than that. It’s about Western solidarity and how far that can be stretched.

Europe doesn’t want to get caught in the middle of a BushChehney pissing match with the Kremlin. Winter isn’t far off and the Euros know that their supply of Russian oil and gas could be the first casualty of American adventurism.

The European Union made the requisite threats of sanctions against Russia but The Guardian reports the EU is now backing away from any action.

Russia’s foreign ministry spokesman, Andrey Nesterenko, …lambasted Nato for “putting pressure” on Russia and said that there could be “irreversible consequences” for stability in Europe. Nato had no “moral right to lecture Russia,” he added.

The Kremlin’s defiant and unapologetic tone comes ahead of a special EU summit in Brussels on Monday, called by France, to discuss the EU’s future relations with Russia. On Thursday, France’s foreign minister, Bernard Coucher, intimated that sanctions against Moscow would be discussed.

Yesterday, though, the EU appeared to be rapidly retreating from this position.

Moscow has made clear it will respond to any punitive measures from Brussels, which could include the suspension of a new EU-Russia partnership agreement. “The time to pass sanctions has certainly not come,” said a senior diplomat from France, which holds the EU presidency.

Analysts in Moscow today said that Russia’s leadership was relatively relaxed about the threat of EU sanctions. “I don’t think the contemporary west has any means to punish a state that is not quite a rogue state,” Yulia Latynina, a commentator with the independent Echo of Moscow radio station told the Guardian.

She went on: “The Kremlin didn’t take Tbilisi and didn’t shoot (Mikheil) Saakashvili. What the west can really do — expelling Russia from the G8 or the World Trade Organisation — isn’t important.’

Like it or not, the East-West game is only getting started. Yesterday Russia successfully test-fired its new, long-range “stealth” missile, the Topol RS-12M specifically designed to defeat the anti-missile batteries Bush intends to deploy in Poland.

China also stands to get dragged into this standoff via the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Putin is seeking SCO support for his gambit on South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Iran is also looking to take advantage of the tensions to strengthen its ties with Moscow and seek entry into the SCO. Iran would also like to get its hands on Russia’s latest-generation S-400 surface to air missile batteries. The mere rumour of that has already given Washington and Israel fits.

There’s a lot at stake in this brinksmanship including the fate of NATO. Without unity the Alliance makes little sense and yet the interests of Western and Central Europe are not in harmony with those of Eastern Europe. In a mutual-defence alliance you should never admit nations you really aren’t willing to fight to defend if it comes right down to it.

I think NATO is hopelessly overextended and I think Vlad Putin thinks that too. If I’m right, this problem is bound to get worse before it gets any better.

 

The Temptation of Vlad Putin

Georgia attacks S. Ossetia. Russia repels invaders. Russia storms Georgia. Ceasefire deal is inked. Russia stays put in Georgia. Washington flies into a tizzy, summons NATO underlings to Brussels. NATO members threaten “sanctions” on Russia. Putin yawns.

What is Vlad Putin’s game? I think it’s just possible that NATO has presented him with a temptation he can’t resist. It may have given Putin the opportunity to test NATO’s resolve and explore the tensions that pervade the alliance. Putin may even sense a possible opportunity to fracture NATO’s already wobbly solidarity.

Look at it from Vlad’s perspective.

1. He knows that the major Western European powers are going along with Washington very reluctantly. They need Russia a lot more than they need or want Georgia. Russia is a main source of Europe’s natural gas supply and it’s become a vital market for Western European exports.

2. He knows that NATO’s eastward expansion through the Balkans and Caucasus has been American-driven and that the US has pretty much ignored its traditional allies’ reservations which, incidentally, included the very prospect of a Georgia-style conflict.

3. He knows that NATO has shown itself something of an alliance in name only in Afghanistan with some nations ducking the mission altogether and others placing such severe restrictions on the use of their deployed forces as to undermine their benefit to ISAF.

4. He knows that he can afford to test the waters. If the heat gets too much, all he needs to do is order his mechanized forces to drive back a few hundred kilometers and all will be forgiven.

5. He knows that the Europeans will ensure that NATO’s response will be mild at worst. The Washington ideologues may have an appetite for reviving the Cold War but the Euros, who dealt with it in their backyard for half a century, want no part of that.

No, when Nick Sarkozy leveled his “or else” ultimatum, he might just have presented Putin an opportunity he can’t refuse to test NATO’s heart – and its spine.

 

Putin Vows Russia Will Win New Arms Race

Just weeks before he steps down as Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin has delivered a defiant warning to the West – Russia intends to win the arms race launched by George w. Bush. From The Independent:

“It’s clear that a new arms race is unfolding in the world,” said Mr Putin, one that Russia did not start. And he vowed that Russia would respond to the threats by developing newer and more modern weapons that were as good as if not better than those possessed by Western countries. “We are being forced into retaliating … Russia has and always will have the answers to these challenges,” he said.

Russian bomber patrols have recently been made over the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans and approached close to the borders of Nato airspace. Two Russian Tupolev-95 aircraft strayed south from their routine patrol pattern off the Norwegian coast and headed towards Scotland last September.

In the most recent incident, two long-range “Blackjack” bombers flew to the Bay of Biscay off France and Spain to test-launch missiles. The Russians have also hinted they want to re-establish a naval presence in the Mediterranean, probably using Syrian ports. The strategy is designed to heighten the visibility of Russia’s military might but the sabre-rattling has alarmed Western countries and fuelled talk of a new Cold War.

Mr Putin went into overdrive yesterday, painting Russia as the victim of Western aggression and expansion, and promised a Russian response. He said Western countries spent far more on defence than Russia, and also returned to a theme he has raised many times before – that of Nato enlargement towards Russian borders. “We pulled out of bases in Cuba and Vietnam,” he said. “And what did we get? New American bases in Bulgaria and Romania.”

Symbolically ominous changes are under way too: Russia recently announced that vast parades in Red Square to showcase the nation’s military strength are to be revived this year for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mr Putin also accused unnamed foreign countries of cynically trying to gain unfair access to Russia’s natural resources. “Many conflicts, foreign policy acts and diplomatic démarches smell of oil and gas,” he said. “This is the context in which we understand the growing interest towards Russia.” He said the sovereignty of certain countries had been completely destroyed under slogans of freedom and democracy.”

Russia isn’t the only country that has been furiously rearming since George w. Bush came to power in 2000. China is developing a large and modern air force and will soon field a true, blue water navy. India is also pursuing large scale naval expansion.

NATO expansion, the hyper-aggressive Bush Doctrine and US Space Doctrine, America’s programme to deploy a new generation of nuclear weapons including “first strike” warheads were bound to trigger this sort of response, particularly among the emerging economic superpowers. There have even been rumours recently that China may be negotiating to establish a major naval base in Iran.

 

Mission Accomplished, Jerk. Russia Suspends CFE Treaty

Dammit, where is Lee Harvey Oswald now that we need him?

You may never have heard of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty but it was a critical element in easing of military tensions between West and East at the end of the Cold War. That was the deal where we all said we were going to play nice for a change so that we could get a good night’s sleep at long last.

It worked real well for a while until a moronic frat boy and his diseased, demonic sidekick arrived on the scene and decided to stir things up by putting missiles and radars on the other side’s doorstep.

The upshot of this Oval Office lunacy? Big Vlad Putin has signed a law suspending the CFE. From the New York Times:

“The treaty, signed in the last days of the Cold War, limited the number of tanks, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, artillery and other heavy weapons that both NATO and Russia could deploy in Western Europe and the western part of Russia.

The U.S., the European Union and NATO had all urged Russia not to suspend the treaty, which was regarded in Europe as a cornerstone agreement in maintaining security on the continent.”

America’s Number One Nitwit has done a truly monstrous job at shredding the fabric of peace woven with enormous effort by his predecessors. Like an unruly little punk he got away with it because there was no one around able to slap him down when he needed it.

Now we have arms races foraging ahead in every corner of the northern hemisphere. Why? So these despicable Chickenhawks who ducked the fight at every turn when it was their turn can now act tough, maybe even manly. What a joke.

 

Putin Blasts America – Huh?

Vlad Putin has rebuked the US for its ”almost uncontained” use of force in the world, and for encouraging other countries to acquire nuclear weapons. Coming from a guy whose country has been steamrollering the Chechens for more than a decade, it’s hard to tell whether that’s a criticism or a compliment.

According to The New York Times:

“Putin told a security forum attracting top officials that ”we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force in international relations” and that ”one state, the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way.

”’This is very dangerous, nobody feels secure anymore because nobody can hide behind international law,’ Putin told the gathering.

“Putin did not elaborate on specifics and did not mention the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan.
But he voiced concern about U.S. plans to build a missile defense system in eastern Europe — likely in Poland and the Czech Republic — and the expansion of NATO as possible challenges to Russia.

“On the missile defense system, Putin said: ‘I don’t want to accuse anyone of being aggressive’ but suggested it would seriously change the balance of power and could provoke an unspecified response.

“The annual Munich Conference on Security Policy, now in its 43rd year, is often used as an opportunity for officials to conduct diplomacy in an informal setting.

“The conference this year focuses on ”Global Crises — Global Responsibilities,” looking at NATO’s changing role, the Middle East peace process, the West’s relations with Russia and the fight against terrorism.”

Much as it is easy to criticize Putin, his main point is right. Washington’s aggressive international posture and its unilateralism is destabilizing global security and triggering reactions in other states, some big, some not so big. Iran isn’t the only smaller state pursuing nuclear technology (i.e. weaponry). In fact, Iran is an exception in that the West is intervening before Tehran can build a nuclear weapon. We missed that boat with Pakistan, India and, for all practical purposes, North Korea.

Big and emerging powers such as Russia, China and India are also pursuing major rearmament programmes inevitably focusing on acquiring arsenals of modern, high-tech weaponry. These moves are coupled with a responsive departure from the international control mechanisms. Bush dropped the gloves and now others are taking theirs off. This is very much part of the Bush legacy, one more thing to thank him for, global insecurity.