Shoving the Genie Back In The Bottle

With all the problems facing the world – global warming, resource exhaustion, freshwater depletion and desertification, species extinction, overpopulation and migration, terrorism and security – you would think there wouldn’t be room for anymore. But there is.

Also on today’s menu is nuclear proliferation and, according to a report in today’s Washington Post, it’s a problem on the verge of getting out of control:

“At least 40 developing countries from the Persian Gulf region to Latin America have recently approached U.N. officials here to signal interest in starting nuclear power programs, a trend that concerned proliferation experts say could provide the building blocks of nuclear arsenals in some of those nations.

At least half a dozen countries have also said in the past four years that they are specifically planning to conduct enrichment or reprocessing of nuclear fuel, a prospect that could dramatically expand the global supply of plutonium and enriched uranium, according to U.S. and international nuclear officials and arms-control experts.”

The list includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, Algeria and Morocco. There are already seven nuclear plants underway in Egypt and Turkey. Even Yemen wants one.

“We are concerned that some countries are moving down the nuclear [weapons] path in reaction to the Iranians,” a senior U.S. government official who tracks the spread of nuclear technology said in an interview. He declined to speak on the record because of diplomatic sensitivities. “The big question is: At what point do you reach the nuclear tipping point, when enough countries go nuclear that others decide they must do so, too?”

Mohammed ElBaradei, the director general of the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency and a winner with the IAEA of the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize for his work preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, has likened the pursuit of “latent” nuclear capability to buying an insurance policy.

“You don’t really even need to have a nuclear weapon,” ElBaradei said at a recent international conference of security officials in Munich. “It’s enough to buy yourself an insurance policy by developing the capability, and then sit on it. Let’s not kid ourselves: Ninety percent of it is insurance, a deterrence.” I

Although they don’t like to admit it, it was the original nuclear weapons powers that made a joke out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty under which lesser nations were supposed to give up the right to nukes while the nuclear weapons states undertook to disarm. With decades of indifference to their NPT obligations by the United States, CCCP/Russia, China, France and Britain, the rest of the world saw no reason they shouldn’t ignore the treaty either. Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea so far and there’ll undoubtedly be more to come.

I suppose a recommitted nuclear disarmament agreement might be theoretically possible but don’t count on it. There’s a global arms race underway involving the US, China, India and Russia that will almost certainly preclude any agreement on disarmament by the nuclear powers.

 

We’re Getting All Mushie About Pakistan Again

It has to be tough to be Pervez Musharraf. He seems to live in a world where people are either his avowed enemies or just tolerate him, sort of.

One thing about the guy is that he gets everybody nervous, really nervous at the first sign of instability in his administration. The fact is, he’s always made us nervous. Six years ago, on November 5, 2001, Gwynne Dyer explained why:

“…General Richard Meyers, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Sunday that he is ‘concerned’ about Pakistan’s stability and the safety of its nuclear arsenal. The Indian government said nothing at all, but you can guess what it is thinking.

It is thinking that if Pakistan should fall into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists as the result of a revolt against Musharraf, most probably from within his own armed forces, then India will have to ‘preempt’ – destroy Pakistan’s nuclear weapons on the ground before it can launch them – within the first hours after a new regime comes to power in Islamabad. And Washington, of course, is thinking exactly the same thing.

Seymore Hersh has just published a report in the New Yorker magazine, strenuously denied by the Pentagon (but then it would deny it, wouldn’t it?) that the United States already has a secret plan to destroy Pakistan’s nuclear weapons immediately if they seem likely to fall into fundamentalist hands.

This is insanely dangerous stuff even if it is true, as every one assumes, that the preemptive attack would be carried out using only conventional, not nuclear weapons. Pakistanis in all walks of life… …see their nuclear weapons as their last and maybe their only safeguard against far more powerful India.

A bungled or partial preemption would probably end with the new regime in Pakistan launching its [remaining] nuclear weapons …while it still could. The targets could be Indian nuclear bases and cities, or even US troops on the ground in Afghanistan.

How real is the danger? It’s not so much the civilian fundamentalists demonstrating against the West in the streets who pose the danger, but the generation of fundamentalist officers, brought into the armed forces by the late General (and President) Zia ul-Haq in the 1980s, who have now risen to command key army formations. Together with many senior officers of Inter-Service Intelligence – [the agency] that basically created the Taliban, …they comprise a large fundamentalist presence inside the only Pakistani institution that really works.”

And that’s why we’re getting all Mushie about Paksitan again because, in the six years since Dyer penned this particular column, things there haven’t gotten a bit better.

 

Hey Steve, Tell George to Trash the Nukes

Two Canadian senators are calling for the federal government to get serious about nuclear disarmament, starting with the U.S.

Senators Romeo Dallaire and Douglas Roche say Canada should pressure Washington to honour its disarmament promises under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and to sign the comprehensive test ban treaty.

The original nuclear club, all of which have permanent seats on the UN Security Council – the US, Russia, France, Britain and China – committed to eliminating their nuclear stockpiles in conjunction with other nations promising not to acquire nuclear weapons. The big nations have made an utter mockery of their promises yet have no qualms about upbraiding small nations that breach their commitments.

The Bush regime has announced plans to develop and test and brand new array of nuclear weapons. America is also fueling a number of arms races around the world, including Russia, China and India.

Now I know Tories don’t like Canadians speaking out about their American Idols but c’mon. If we can’t speak to Washington, London, Paris, Moscow and Beijing, who can? Besides, wouldn’t it be refreshing to see Harper show some interest in peace and a bit less in war?

 

The Nuclear Threshold

Little Bundles of Instant Sunshine

During the height of the Cold War a lot of attention was paid to the “Nuclear Threshold”, the point at which the actions of one side would cause the other side to resort to its nuclear arsenal, the point of MAD or “mutually assured destruction”, the end of everything.

Back then it was recognized that even tinkering with the nuclear arsenal could destabilize the balance of terror. During his term, Jimmy Carter considered the neutron bomb, a bomb designed to be very heavy on radiation and very light on blast. The idea was that you could use it on an advancing Soviet army, for example, without causing massive destruction and radioactive contamination of the site. The same thing for civilian targets. You could effectively depopulate a city but leave the buildings undamaged.

The neutron bomb was feasible but it was wisely rejected. Saner minds realized it would make nuclear weapons more tempting to use which would cause the other side (the Soviets) to be even more paranoid about an American first-strike.

That’s what can happen when you tinker with a nuclear arsenal. It causes everyone else to speculate on what you’re up to. It can also cause them to begin building up their own nuclear muscle just in case their worst suspicions become reality. The simple point is we don’t need to get Russia or China acting on their worst suspicions.

Now George W. Bush is doing it up real fine. He’s doing it up on foreign policy. He’s doing it up on defensive systems. He’s doing it up on offensive systems too. Let’s see – we’ve got a guy who seems to be unstable staring us in the face and he’s brandishing a new shield and a big, new sword. What could he be up to?

It’s not what George Bush is up to, it’s the perception he gives that is the greatest danger. He’s gone unilateral, withdrawn from the nuclear treaty, begun deploying a missile defence system worldwide, and is about to begin production on a new generation of nukes. Add to this his proven willingness to conquer other countries on flimsy pretexts and that he has proclaimed a doctrine of unprovoked, preventative war to ensure that his country enjoys, in perpetuity, “strength beyond challenge.”

Now I don’t like math any more than the next guy but, pretend you’re Moscow or Beijing, and run those six factors through an equation and see what you come out with. Hell, they’ve even talked about first strike being a valid option. They’ve talked about using nuclear weapons against Iran’s bunkers.

This is the most bellicose president, possibly since 1812, certainly in the past half-century of American history. He’s also deceitful, naive, impulsive and ill-informed – putty in the hands of others. Now, factor that into your equation.

Somebody has to pull this clown back from the edge. That has to start by derailing Bush’s plan for a new generation of nukes. There’s nothing wrong with the existing arsenal. They’re reliable and devastating as ever. The new nukes Bush is after would simply make them easier and tidier to use, one warhead at a time. The rest of the world isn’t fooled by this. Why should the American Congress allow themselves to be drawn into this lunacy? Why should we all be plunged into another Cold War?