October 2008


I’m telling you, you need to watch everything that’s happening when you connect the dots in that region from Afghanistan to India, Russia, Pakistan and China. It’s like watching something growing in a Petrie dish.

Remember Pakistan, Mr. Bush’s most important ally in The War on Terror? Things have changed. A key factor was the Bush initiative to give nuclear science and assistance to Pakistan’s main military rival – India. Then the Wall Street meltdown shockwave apparently hit Islamabad’s markets and things went critical.

So where does Pakistan’s president Zardari go when he needs a measly $6-billion to salvage his own economy? Why, to China of course. He goes for a four day visit. And what else does the Prez come home with? Nothing less than a nuclear technology transfer deal with the Chinese.

Now it’s not the sort of comprehensive nuclear gift basket that India just received from the U.S., not openly. Rather it’s a piecemeal sort of agreement, at least what’s being presented for public consumption. CBS News, however, got this:

A senior Pakistani government official, familiar with discussions between Zardari and Chinese officials, claimed Thursday that China had agreed to “consider further nuclear power reactors to fulfill our needs. The relationship (on the nuclear issue) remains intact”. Speaking to CBS News on condition of anonymity, the official added, “there is now a complete understanding on our future cooperation”.

Oh great. Now we’re creating bi-polar proxies again, only this time we might just be giving them advanced technology critical to their nuclear arsenals. Say that to yourself three times. This is probably a good time to learn a bit about the theory of the use of nuclear weapons. An exchange of weapons over there could trigger an irresistable spread within hours. And that would be that. So can somebody remind me why we’re just going along with this, even increasing the possibility of this turning the lights off?

And that, ladies and gents, is exactly what’s starting to happen there.

Here are a few of the cards that have already been dealt:

America’s global economic domination appears to be winding down. It’s being gradually squeezed by ascending economic superpowers including China and India and, to a lesser degree, Russia and Brazil.

America sees its key rival as China which is also America’s biggest creditor. America and other nations have outsourced a great deal of their manufacturing capability to China which has given the Chinese the needed spark of stimulus to make huge leaps in education, technology and, yes, military expansion. China now produces its own rockets, jet fighters and nuke submarines and they’re said to be surprisingly good.

China is flush with cash, nearly two trillion dollars of reserves, much of it American. America is flush with debt, about 11-trillion dollars worth of federal debt alone (closer to 55-trillion if you include unfunded obligations according to the US Comptroller General) with a financial sector in meltdown.

There now exists an intense, although understated, rivalry between the United States and China for global resources with particular focus on the Middle East and Africa. India, too, must compete for resources, especially oil.

China has become dependent on Middle Eastern oil. That gets shipped to China via tankers. The Chinese bound oil tankers ply sea lanes that pass right by India.

India is furiously expanding its “blue water” navy. It’s adding a new generation of its own submarines as well as new surface vessels including aircraft carriers. The Indian Navy has already proclaimed its intention to secure the oceans east of India to the Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula. That blankets China’s entire seacoast, all of it.

The United States appears to have drawn India into its camp to aid in the containment of China. India and China are, after all, natural rivals who have clashed before.

The India-US nuclear deal increases the insecurity of China’s tanker access to Middle Eastern oil and, for that matter, its access to just about every other resource. It also has sparked consternation and genuine insecurity in Islamabad.

China, too, is embarking on an enormous rearmament campaign. So, too, is Russia. China, in particular, is focusing on its own “blue water” navy, one that will contest the same oceans and sea lanes that the Indians have said they will control.

The capability of China’s subs was demonstrated about a year ago when one of its new boats popped up in the middle of a US Navy carrier battle group, just five miles from the carrier. Until they eyeballed it the American ships had no idea it was there. Popping to the surface was tantamount to saying, “Bang, you’re all dead.” That was much more than a stunt

China knows that it can’t risk relying on its new navy to keep open its access to Middle East oil. Hence it’s looking for overland routes and those pipelines would have to flow through Pakistan and, in particular, the Balochistan territory in the south.

The Americans, too, are eyeballing pipeline routes through this region that would bring oil and gas resources across Afghanistan into Pakistan and then on to India or south through Balochistan to the Arabian Sea and onward to the Good Guys

Pakistan is the perfect blocker to thwart Western and Indian access to these oil and gas reserves and divert them, instead, to China.

Pakistan, and Iran with which it shares a border, are both seeking membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, SCO, which is, among other things, a military mutual defence alliance and now includes China, Russia and Khazakstan.

Are you beginning to get the picture? The world has been plunged into a state of flux geopolitically, economically and militarily. Some nations are on the way up, some nations are ebbing a bit. This creates a great deal of insecurity, suspicion and, to some degree, anger.

You know, we should be in high dudgeon over the ludicrous plunge into this. We’re sitting by as the United States, by its nuclear suppport of India, is allowing the Chinese to cut an offsetting deal with the Pakistanis. If we can’t stop this at our end, there’s not a chance in Hell we’d be able to get the other side to back down. And, if we don’t stop this in time, what do you end up with? A brand new, vastly more unstable and dangereous, Cold War.

This isn’t wild speculation or fantasy. It’s about the only coherent narrative you can extract from these circumstances. We have to start to think about just what is going on, where these things are headed.

Keep in mind how the Soviet Union and its superpower days came to an end. America drove it to financial ruin (thanks to a handy collapse in world oil prices when the Sovs most needed that revenue). It didn’t end in a shooting war. It ended with the collapse of the Soviet economy that also brought the collapse of its military apparatus.

Now it’s America that’s economically vulnerable and China that is poised to exploit that weakness, wherever it can, while the window of opportunity remains open. American diplomacy during the Bush years has been an utter catastrophe, a succession of blunders that were never foreseen by an administration blinded by an insane ideology and hubris.

Wheels spinning within wheels. You may just be getting your first glimpse at the new Cold War.


More dead Afghans – women and children – taken out by an allied airstrike. The good news – this time it’s only 18, maybe nine more buried under the rubble. From BBC News:

“A BBC reporter in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah saw the bodies – three women and the rest children – ranging in age from six months to 15.
The families brought the bodies from their village in the Nad Ali district, where they say the air strike occurred.


A further nine bodies are said to be trapped under destroyed buildings.
Nato-led forces say they are investigating the incident in an area where the British military are known to operate.”

What is wrong with us? This plays straight into the Taliban’s hands. It’s the perfect way for us to lose the “hearts and minds” struggle of a guerrilla war.

And don’t give me any of that garbage about these deaths being accidental. There’s nothing accidental about them. We know that massive civilian deaths are inevitable when we rely on aerial bombs to make up for our deliberate choice not to field even a fraction of the number of troops this war demands. We know these civilian deaths are the logical consequence of our dependency on airstrikes and so there can be no argument that, in calling in these airstrikes, we are morally and legally intending to cause these deaths.

I wasn’t going to get into this today but I’ve changed my mind. Here’s an enlightening perspective from Seumas Milne in today’s Guardian:

…The British commander Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith was last week even blunter. “We’re not going to win this war,” he said, adding that if the Taliban were prepared to “talk about a political settlement”, that was “precisely the sort of progress that concludes insurgencies like this”. The double-barrelled duo were duly slapped down by US defence secretary Robert Gates for defeatism. But even Gates now publicly backs talks with the Taliban, which are in fact already taking place under Saudi sponsorship.

This is the conflict western politicians and media continue to urge their reluctant populations to support as a war for civilisation. In reality, it is a war of barbarity, whose contempt for the value of Afghan life has fuelled the very resistance that western military and political leaders are now unable to contain.

In this year alone, for every occupation soldier killed, at least three Afghan civilians have died at the hands of occupation forces. They include the 95 people, 60 of them children, killed by a US air assault in Azizabad in August; the 47 wedding guests dismembered by US bombardment in Nangarhar in July – US forces have a particular habit of attacking weddings; and the four women and children killed in a British rocket barrage six weeks ago in Sangin.

…over the past year civilian deaths at the hands of Nato forces have tripled, despite changes in rules of engagement.
But most telling is the political and military calculation that underlies the Afghan civilian bloodletting. “Close air support” bomb attacks called in by ground forces – which rose from 176 in 2005 to 2,926 in 2007 and are now the US tactic of choice – are between four and 10 times as deadly for Afghan civilians as ground attacks, the figures show, and air strikes now account for 80% of those killed by the occupation forces.

But while 242 US and Nato ground troops have died in the war with the Taliban this year, not a single pilot has been killed in action. The trade-off could not be clearer. With troops thin on the ground and the US military up to their necks in Iraq and elsewhere, US and Nato reliance on air attacks minimises their own casualties while guaranteeing that Afghan civilians will die in far larger numbers.

It is that equation that makes a nonsense of US and British claims that their civilian victims are accidental “collateral damage”, while the Taliban’s use of roadside bombs, suicide attacks and classic guerrilla operations from civilian areas are a sign of their moral depravity. In real life, the escalating civilian death toll is not a mistake, but the result of a clear decision to put the lives of occupation troops before civilians; westerners before Afghans.

Dependence on air power is also a reflection of US imperial overstretch and the reluctance of Nato states to put more boots on the ground. But however much the nominal Afghan president Hamid Karzai rails against Nato’s recklessness with Afghan blood, the indiscriminate air war carries on regardless. Given that the US government spent 10 times more on every sea otter affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill than it does in “condolence payments” to Afghans for the killing of a family member, perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise.

But nor should it be that the occupation’s cruelty is a recruiting sergeant for the Taliban. As Aga Lalai, who lost both grandparents, his wife, father, three brothers and four sisters in a US bombing in Helmand last summer, put it: “So long as there is just one 40-day-old boy remaining alive, Afghans will fight against the people who do this to us.”

There’s nothing left that’s noble in our war in Afghanistan. There is nothing noble in butchering Afghan civilians in order that we can wage “war on the cheap.” It’s no wonder the Taliban are resurgent, no surprise that they’re now closing in on Kabul. We just keep recruiting more and more insurgents with every civilian we slaughter.

But this war isn’t going to end anytime soon. NATO states might just drift away but American forces aren’t leaving. I recently wrote about the Baloch insurrection in southern Pakistan and America’s strategic and energy interests there. That said, there’s no reason at all, none whatsoever, to continue soldiering on in Afghanistan as America’s Foreign Legion either.


It could just be that no one has more at stake in the November 4th presidential election that Sarah Palin. If Obama wins, it’s very much a lose-lose proposition for Ms. Palin, both in Washington and back home in Juneau.

The Anchorage Daily News reports that Palin’s campaign blunders and excesses haven’t gone down well at home and she faces a much different reality if she has to go back to the governor’s mansion:

Palin has always attracted controversy, but she is now a far more polarizing figure, both in Alaska as well as nationally, than before her nomination. If she returns, the Republican governor will face former Democratic allies furious at her campaign attacks.

She will also face lawmakers from both parties ticked off at her handling of the so-called ‘troopergate’ investigation and her recent false assertions that the investigator’s report cleared her, according to interviews with a number of lawmakers and others who watch Alaska politics.

“We’ve seen her do and say things that are shocking to us, so it’s going to be different, to put it mildly,” said Juneau Democratic Rep. Beth Kerttula, the House minority leader. “We have a whole different way of looking at her.”

It was only 15-years ago. The Tories were led by Kim Campbell and she called an election she looked likely to win. When it was over there were but two Tories standing. They’re certainly back, after a decade in the desert and a humiliating capitulation to the Reform/Alliance movement of Stephen “Uncle Joe” Harper.

So the Libs need to take heart in that the Dion loss, bad as it was, is still about 35 times better than the drubbing the Tories took way back when. We don’t have nearly as much to do to rebuild. The core support of Canadians hasn’t been lost, just temporarily displaced. Find the right chord that resonates with the electorate, start making Harper own his gaffes and excesses, and the Liberals will be back.

We have to face hard facts. We need a significantly different leadership than what we had during the first Harper administration, one that doesn’t back down from him (or flee the Commons on tough votes), one that pins him to his own record. We need someone who connects with the Canadian public, a communicator and a fighter.

I can’t entirely blame the Tories for smirking. They got cleanly away with so very much. Imagine Harper, who sat mute during the campaign, announcing less than one day after the polls had closed, plans to stack the Senate in order to force his notion of reform through the upper house. The guy was too cowardly, too craven, to seek a mandate from the voters on that one. He just pulled the wool over their eyes and he couldn’t wait to make that plain, not even for 24-hours. Breathtaking.

No it’s time to find a leader who’ll put the boots to this scoundrel at every turn, time to form another rat pack to hound Harper relentlessly until everyone sees this character for what he is. It’s time.

Heather Mallick, writing in The Guardian, filed this post-mortem on our election and, if nothing else, it should lift your spirits:

There are three wings to Canadian political life. Harper, the Conservative PM, is a rightwing extremist, although he doesn’t suck up like Cameron. He is an anti-choice, pro-prison, poverty-ignoring, food-safety-privatising, arts-ridiculing, Afghanistan war-loving, cowboy hat-wearing guy.

The Liberals, the nation’s natural rulers, are in the middle of the road like an expiring woodchuck. They are sensible people without passion; they own just the one house; they’re New Labour without the ratlike cunning, without the Cherie, shall we say. The New Democratic party is old Labour.

Harper began passing laws making Canada more like the States. His most complimentary adjective was “CEO-like”. He wants life sentences for 14-year-old murderers, of whom we have maybe three in a nation of 33 million citizens. He wants to build more prisons, ban safe-injection sites for heroin addicts, privatise universal healthcare, make the foetus not just a person, but someone who can dress for success – you know the drill.

…So we voted. As in the movie Groundhog Day, where the post-election morning was the same as the last one, with the result being another minority government born of a quiet desperation that won’t be soothed until the Liberals get a new leader, not a sweet smart guy like Stéphane Dion, but someone with claws like Michael Ignatieff, a Canadian you Brits took to your bosom some years ago.

Thanks for sending him back. It’s getting hot here, our trees are sawdust and our ice is melting. Canada needs a smart decisive cynic. Anything to haul that crushed woodchuck off the road.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/16/canada-georgebush

I realize this is from al Jazeera but you can find plenty of similar stuff from concerned Americans on the web. This one shows a segment of the crowd that’s flocking to Sarah Palin.

To Americans who watched last night’s third and final McCain/Obama debate, it seems the Illionois senator made it 3-0 over “Crash” McCain.

From what I saw of it, McCain was certainly at his best for a while until he lapsed back into default mode – frantic anger. The double whammy for McCain is that, when you get angry and you’re that old, you come away looking like the scary old man who sits in his rocker on the porch yelling at the kids playing in the street. McCain’s age really makes him look like an Old Geezer, furious but really wobbly, or, as Obama would call him, “erratic.”

Republican pundits who were able to overlook the Geezer factor may have been right when they claimed that McCain won the debate on points but that’s sort of like saying, “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?”

McCain was clearly out to provoke an “angry black man” response from Obama. A racist ploy? Hell yes. But it didn’t work. Obama didn’t go for it and, in that, showed himself presidential while McCain showed himself the Old Geezer that he is.

Another thing that became apparent in the second debate and was utterly proven last night is that McCain isn’t up to a 90-minute intellectual battle. He’s fair enough for the first 30-minutes. After that he runs out of steam and reverts to default, angry old man mode. He just gets so wound up that he loses it.

I think last night reinforced a lot of minds that were already in Obama’s camp or leaning that way. As for the Arizona senator it was sad to watch a man who has served his country all his life squander his integrity and debase his character only to come up empty-handed.

I think the White House is Obama’s barring the race factor rearing its ugly head on November 4 to derail America’s best hope for the future.

The Great Wall Street Caper crash has spread around the world and in some troubling spots the locals are getting decidedly anti-American. One of them is Pakistan.

There’s some speculation that China is about to capitalize on America’s fiscal blunders to extend its own sphere of influence while its rival is in disarray.

Pakistan is said to be on the verge of debt default, a crisis that has sent President Zardari off, not to Washington, but to Beijing looking for a rescue in the form of a $6-billion bailout. In a world where trillion dollar bailouts are now a fact of life, $6-billion doesn’t sound like much but it can sure buy an awful lot of influence with a country such as Pakistan.

From the Washington Post:

The Pakistanis like to call the Chinese their all-weather ally, and the U.S. their fair-weather friends,” said Daniel Markey, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “This kind of loan could be seen as self-serving by the Chinese, and continue that impression.”

The paper reports that, in Pakistan, “the climate of crisis and public anger over domestic bailouts in the United States and Western Europe have made even a modest infusion from its Western allies politically difficult.”

With American intelligence agencies calling Afghanistan a “downward spiral,” a move by Pakistan away from the West and toward China’s sphere of influence cannot help but jeopardize America’s position in the region.

Well it sure didn’t take very long to see how Stephen Harper deliberately kept voters in the dark. Less than 24-hours after winning his no-issue minority romp Harper unveiled Mr. Dion’s economic platform, virtually item for item.

Then his aides told the press that they kept him from revealing what little he did have by way of a platform out of fear he would run off at the mouth and cost the party precious seats. There was a smart bet.

Now even the Americans warn that Harper’s “no deficit” promise is so much smoke blown straight up the electorate’s backside. From Bloomberg.com:

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper framed his re-election campaign around promises to avoid deficits and a costly rescue of the country’s banks.

While his Oct. 14 victory left him with more Conservative Party seats in Parliament, the deepening global financial crisis may force him to backpedal on both pledges.

Throughout the 37-day race, he boasted that Canada’s financial system was still sound as other countries bailed out their banks and said a rescue wouldn’t be necessary.

“The Americans are bailing out their banks and financial institutions,” Harper, 49, said Oct. 11 at a rally in the Montreal suburb of Longueuil. “We are investing in jobs right here in Canada.”

Harper Reversal

Yesterday, Harper reversed course, indicating taxpayers will probably need to cover the cost of ensuring that Canadian banks stay solid. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, 58, may increase deposit insurance beyond the current C$100,000 ($83,900) per person and guarantee short-term bank debt, the Globe and Mail reported on Oct. 14, citing people it didn’t identify by name.

The Bank of Canada may let mutual funds and pension funds take part in its short-term debt purchases aimed at shoring up liquidity in credit markets, the Globe also said.


So, there it is. Harper conned Canadian voters so rapaciously that his lies didn’t hold up for even 24-hours after the polls closed. I’m sorry but this guy has as much respect for the Canadian people as Parizeau had for Quebeckers in the last referendum when he described them as lobsters ready for the pot. Harper duped his way to a minority win and he deserves our full contempt for the way he did it.

Don’t get me wrong, I liked Judy LaMarsh. There was a lot about her to like, even admire. Yet if Judy had gotten her way, Pierre Trudeau would never have won the leadership of the Liberal Party.

Judy, you see, supported Paul Hellyer and, to her, Trudeau was an outsider who hadn’t paid his dues. At the 1968 Liberal leadership convention, LaMarsh urged Hellyer to throw his support to Robert Winters, telling Hellyer, “Don’t let that bastard win it, Paul – he isn’t even a Liberal.”

Judy’s remark was picked up be a nearby CBC microphone. “That bastard” won the leadership and Judy’s political career was abruptly over.

Judy’s problem, like all the Judys in today’s LPC, is that she couldn’t see just how much an “outsider” had to offer the party and just how badly that party needed that sort of fresh blood.

We don’t need more Judys to salvage today’s LPC. What we need are a few Keith Daveys. This brief summary from the Canadian Encyclopedia gives you a fair idea of just who this man was, what he meant to the Liberal Party in his day and why we’re so badly in need of another of his kind, not another Judy, today:

Keith Davey, politician (b at Toronto 21 Apr 1926). After graduating from University of Toronto’s Victoria College, Davey worked in radio and held a number of positions in the Toronto-area Liberal Party. After Liberal defeats in the 1957 and 1958 general elections, Davey organized a small group, known as “Cell 13,” to rejuvenate the party in Ontario. In 1961 Davey became the Liberal’s national campaign director and helped to devise the strategy that defeated the Conservatives in 1963. His advice was less successful in 1965, when the Liberals sought a parliamentary majority.


Made a senator by Prime Minister
PEARSON in 1966, Davey chaired a Senate investigation of Canadian mass media. Following the Liberal Party’s near defeat in 1972, Davey was summoned by PMTRUDEAU to guide the party’s electoral fortunes and was rewarded by a successful election in 1974. Although the Liberals were defeated in 1979, Davey returned the Liberals to power in 1980 as their national campaign cochairman and was brought back in midcampaign to try to revitalize John TURNER’s flagging campaign in 1984. The experience was not a happy one, and in 1986 Davey took his doubts about Turner’s leadership to the public in a book, The Rainmaker.

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