The Mound of Sound

Emerging infections diseases of the SARS/Ebola/HIV type are on the rise and, unfortunately, we in the affluent West are looking in the wrong direction. A team of scientists has studied the development of infections disease from 1940 to 2004 and your suspicions were right, the incidence and spread of these diseases is increasing.

Their study, published in the journal Nature, has identified a disease highway that begins in nature and then spreads through wildlife to livestock to humans. The past decades have witnessed rapid infringement on the environment, forest clearing for example, and a massive increase in livestock populations. In the result, what once was a 2-lane road has been transformed into a disease superhighway.

The researchers have produced a map (above) showing where the next major diseases are most likely to develop. These hotspots are those depicted in red while the least active regions are in green. They contend the West needs to put its disease focus on these tropical hotspots instead of simply worrying too much about what is happening at home.

While we tend to think of diseases such as HIV and SARS, the scientists identified 335 “emerging diseases” during the 64-year span of their study and they’re sure there are plenty more to come.

“We are crowding wildlife into ever-smaller areas, and human population is increasing,” said coauthor Marc Levy, a global-change expert at the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), an affiliate of Columbia University’s Earth Institute. “The meeting of these two things is a recipe for something crossing over.” The main sources are mammals. Some pathogens may be picked up by hunting or accidental contact; others, such as Malaysia’s Nipah virus, go from wildlife to livestock, then to people. Humans have evolved no resistance to zoonoses, so the diseases can be extraordinarily lethal. The scientists say that the more wild species in an area, the more pathogen varieties they may harbor. Kate E. Jones, an evolutionary biologist at the Zoological Society of London and first author of the study, said the work urgently highlights the need to prevent further intrusion into areas of high biodiversity. “It turns out that conservation may be an important means of preventing new diseases,” she said.

While new diseases are most likely to come from the tropics, the West has played a huge role in the evolution of the most lethal diseases. We have been so undisciplined in our use of antibiotics that we’ve created new, increasingly drug-resistant strains. At the same time, modern transportation and industrial agriculture have accelerated the spread of emerging diseases.

The report argues that the West needs to take a more prophylactic approach to emerging diseases, pushing the front lines of detection and intervention to the hotspots themselves instead of waiting for these diseases to arrive at our own borders. We also need to explore the role that conservation of remaining tropical forests can play in reducing the rate of disease emergence.

When you’re the attacker you get to concentrate your forces on the target being attacked. When you’re the defender, however, you have to spread your forces around to cover all the vital targets your enemy might attack. The more places you want to defend, the more diluted your force becomes. The fewer soldiers available for the job the fewer targets that get defended and, sometimes, the weaker the defences for those points you do try to protect. I think it was Stalin who said that quantity is a quality of itself.

In Kandahar province, Canada lacks the quality of quantity. A combat group of 1,000 at best on a good day is said to yield a sustainably deployable force of about 500. Kandahar province is over 50,000 sq. kms. in area. When you do the math it’s not comforting.

A panel discussion on the CBC two nights ago examined “the mission” in the context of a resurgent Taliban. Finally I heard what won’t pass the lips of Hillier or Harper or MacKay – we’re shaping “the mission” according to our weakness.

Put another way, it’s our limitations, our weakness in numbers, that now increasingly defines “the mission.” Our lack of force has come to dominate other factors such as the growth of the insurgency, the needs of the Kabul government or provincial reconstruction. One reflection of this is our retreat from the countryside into much smaller, strategic areas. That leaves the insurgency more uncontested areas in which they can transit, mass, operate and – govern – in between waging a barbarous form of guerrilla warfare in ISAF territory.

It’s not just the Taliban that sees our weakness. The ordinary people are keenly aware of it also because, to some extent, it portends their own fate. They have to weigh their options and choices very carefully. They know Westerners come. They know those Westerners go. They know what can await them when we’re gone. So, in order to genuinely support us, they need to see real and tangible success in defeating of somehow taming the insurgency. They need to know they can safely bet on our side.

Only days ago 80-Afghans gathered to watch dog fights were killed by a suicide bomber. The very next day three dozen more were felled by another suicide bomber who notionally attacked a Canadian army convoy. I’ve thought about it and I don’t think his real target was the convoy but rather civilians in proximity to the convoy and I think his brutal message got through.

Just about everybody now gets it that we can’t defeat the Taliban militarily. We can, however, lose to the Taliban militarily. That’s not to say they can actually defeat our soldiers with our tanks and artillery and air power but they don’t have to physically destroy us. They win – militarily – by wresting the support of the populace away from the government we’re notionally supporting.

America’s counter-insurgency guru, General David Petraeus, makes it powerfully clear that there is no substitute for numbers, for the “quality of quantity,” in fighting against an insurgency. It’s the type of war where you either go big or go home.

So, if we’re not in Kandahar to win, explain to me why we’re there at all and why we’re planning on staying until 2011?

Porsche has served notice that it’s not going to tolerate the City of London’s levy on gas-guzzling cars driving in the city centre. The City recently introduced a 25-pound daily tax for cars driven in the city. The tax applies to cars that produce more than 225 grams of CO2 per kilometre.

Porsche claims that deterring car traffic in London won’t cut greenhouse gas emissions and, worse, it will deter businesses from the urban core.

The carmaker says it will send a letter to Lord Mayor Livingstone asking that the tax be repealed and, if he refuses, will take its case to court on an application for judicial review.

The giant Tiger Prawn. You can find these succulent monsters just about anywhere today but you should think twice before you give into temptation and cart home a bagful.

You need to think about the environmental, social and health issues associated with these supposed delicacies. These creatures didn’t get that big all on their own. Think fishmeal diets and powerful antibiotics. Think growth hormones.

Most Tiger Prawns sold in North America come from Asia or South America. They’re a farmed or, more properly, “pharmed” product. That’s because they’re raised, actually grown, in shallow ponds.

The object is to get them to grow large, fast. Now, as you might suspect, that means careful control of their diet. That usually means fish pellets. That sort of feeding produces two problems – pellets that don’t get eaten and prawn poop. As waste levels build the ponds can become disease-ridden. To avoid losing the crop, antibiotics are commonly used.

When bigger is better, food alone isn’t always enough. Some producers spice up the critters’ diet with growth hormones. Between the antibiotics and hormones what ends up on your plate could well be a “pharmed” product. That’s the health issue but there’s more, much more.

Prawn farming has been shown to be environmentally devastating. In many places, mangrove forests are cleared to make way for prawn pools. Coral reefs and seabed grasses depend on the mangroves and so do local fishermen. It’s not at all uncommon for fish stocks to collapse in areas of intensive prawn pharming. Fish stocks are further depleted in the production of fish pellets and fish oil to feed the carniverous prawn crop.

Then there’s the waste water which is often pumped into canals, rivers and coastal waters polluting them with pesticides, antibiotics and disinfectants. In some places groundwater contamination leaves the locals without safe drinking water.

Isn’t this just the price of bringing prosperity to the poverty-stricken? No. A Vietnamese study found that half of the country’s prawn farms lost heavily. Of those that made money, 80% were outsiders.

The World Bank once lavished money on prawn farming operations. In Indonesia 70% of these wound up abandoned. Half of Thailand’s shrimp ponds lie unused. Once abandoned, the salination of the mud means they can’t be reclaimed for rice growing. In some countries, big industrial producers steadily move inland clearing forests to make way for shrimp ponds.

Finally there’s the constant problem of the antibiotics. Two products pop up from time to time – nitrofurans and chloramphenicol, a known carcinogen. When either of these is detected by Western inspectors an import ban generally follows. Other products are, however, permissible. The problem seems to be that poor farmers use whatever they can afford to keep their prawns alive until they’re big enough to market. In a money-losing business that’s sometimes bad news for consumers.

You get what you pay for.

An article in today’s Environmental News Network reports on a study conducted by Swedish human geographer Daniel A. Bergquist. He found that the market price of Tiger Prawns is horribly depressed and would have to be five times higher than today’s prices to allow proper environmental protection and a fair wage for the industry’s workers.

As you may have guessed, I don’t eat Tiger Prawns but, then again, I can get my fill of delicious, wild BC sidestripe shrimp or spot prawns less than a mile down the road. That doesn’t mean I haven’t been tempted when I see a line of those big monsters laid out on a bed of ice in the grocery store. That’s where I find the Tiger Prawns but that’s also where I find a curious disconnect. Sometimes I ask where they’re from and, invariably, no one knows. Are they from Bangladesh or Equador or Vietnam or China? Nobody ever seems to know. That’s why I don’t even bother asking whether what’s laying on that bed of ice has been tested for hormones and antibiotics.

The 49-year reign of Fidel Castro is over. The Cuban strongman has advised his countrymen that he won’t be returning as president or commander-in-chief of his country’s armed forces.

Castro has had a remarkable half-century run, a mark not typical of strongman rule. His longevity likely owes a great deal to the memories of the tyrant he ousted, Fulgencio Batista. While some opponents claim Castro turned Cuba into a police state, they choose to overlook the tyranny and corruption of the Batista regime.

Those who praise Castro generally applaud his reforms in public education and health care.

There is no doubt that Castro brought good things to his people and there’s no doubt that he also was a ruthless dictator. He is a nuanced character, a blend of good and bad, readily seen differently from differing vantage points.

Fidel is expected to be replaced by his brother, Raul, who, at 76, will probably be replaced himself before long.

Pakistani strongman Pervez Musharraf has seen his party shot down by angry voters. From the New York Times:

“Almost all the leading figures in the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the party that has governed for the last five years under Mr. Musharraf, lost their seats, including the leader of the party, the former speaker of Parliament and six ministers.

Official results are expected Tuesday, but early returns indicated that the vote would usher in a prime minister from one of the opposition parties, and opened the prospect of a Parliament that would move to undo many of Mr. Musharraf’s policies and that may even try to remove him.

The results were interpreted here as a repudiation of Mr. Musharraf as well as the Bush administration, which has staunchly backed him for more than six years as its best bet in the campaign against the Islamic militants in Pakistan. American officials will have little choice now but to seek alternative allies from among the new political forces emerging from the vote.
Politicians and party workers from Mr. Musharraf’s party said the vote was a protest against government policies and the rise in terrorism here, in particular against Mr. Musharraf’s heavy-handed way of dealing with militancy and his use of the army against tribesmen in the border areas, and against militants in a siege at the Red Mosque here in the capital last summer that left more than 100 people dead.”

The question now appears to be whether Washington has lost its most reliable supporter in Islamabad. At this point it’s probably best to keep a close eye on Pakistan’s military leadership to see whether they will long tolerate a significant reduction in their control of the country’s rule. The Pakistani military is heavily invested in the nation’s government, economy and, of course, security. Wrestling them under control will be the first and hardest challenge facing a new civilian administration – if they can oust Musharraf.

It looks as though the US military’s Africa Command will be headquartered in Germany for the time being.

The latest US military command, created last October, has been unable to find an African nation, save for Liberia, willing to accommodate it. According to Voice of America, several African countries have “expressed reservations about having AFRICOM on the continent, claiming it could signal an expansion of American influence there.”

“… it’s the military component of AFRICOM that seems to be the problem for Africans. The Southern African Development Community, or SADC, has said it will not welcome American forces on any of its member country’s territory.”

Observers say some African nations worry AfriKom may be a Trojan Horse to insinuate American military muscle onto the continent.

Kosovo has declared its independence from Serbia. Now it’s going to have to figure out what to do with itself and that ain’t gonna be easy.

Kosovo begins life as an economic disaster. It’s not only the poorest remnant of the former Yugoslavia, it’s getting poorer by the day. Here’s an insight from Business Week published back in 2004 that remains disturbingly current:

“The massive U.N. presence in Kosovo has created an artificial bubble in Pristina and a few other spots scattered around the province, while the rest of the economy languishes. Foreign investment is practically nil, unemployment runs as high as 70% in some areas, and imports are outpacing exports by 26 to 1. And now the Kosovar economy is starting to slow, from 4.3% growth last year to an expected 4% this year, as the U.N. scales back its presence and as international donors withdraw. Of the $2.9 billion in aid committed, only $2.2 billion has materialized.

It’s easy to blame the U.N. for mismanaging the reconstruction. But long before the international community came to town, Kosovo was already mired in poverty. Back in the days when Yugoslavia was still a country, Kosovo consumed 80% of the total federal development aid.

With a per capita income of $1,100 a year, Kosovo is by some estimates the poorest province in Europe.In many ways, Kosovo looks doomed to failure. It is landlocked, with crumbling infrastructure and hopelessly outdated factories. But perhaps Kosovo’s biggest problem is demographics. Its population, which is 90% ethnic Albanians, has tripled in the past five decades. In addition to being the fastest-growing population in Europe, it’s also the youngest. More than half of its citizens are under 24, and almost one-third are under 15.”

Updated information from Wikipedia is hardly more optimistic. While per capita income has increased modestly, Kosovo’s trade deficit stands at a staggering 70% of GDP. The country’s strongest economic sector seems to be its thriving black market where smuggled cigarettes, gasoline and cement are key commodities. The country has a well-corrupted government and an abundance of criminal gangs.

For Europe’s first Muslim country it’s not an auspicious start but it’s nonetheless “Mission Accomplished.”

Axworthy, Granatstein weigh-in on Canada’s role in world affairs and their remarks are telling.

Axworthy:

Granatstein:

I guess if one thing is apparent in Axworthy’s and Granatstein’s views, it’s that they’re both totally predictable. Axworthy wants Canada’s foreign policy aligned to meet the real issues threatening the world while Granatstein would have us commited to be America’s faithful water boy, subordinating our foreign policy to Washington’s.