June 2007
Monthly Archive
June 20, 2007
Britain’s new ambassador to Afghanistan, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, calls the UK mission “a marathon not a sprint.”
“‘I’ve said the task of standing up a government of Afghanistan that is sustainable is going to take a very long time,’ he said.
“‘It’s a marathon rather than a sprint. We should be thinking in terms of decades.’
“He added: ‘We’re not [talking] about a long-term military presence but we are serious about a long-term development presence, because this country does matter to us and to the region in so many ways.’
“‘Mistakes have been made. I know that, we all know that, we regret them deeply,’ he said. “But the Taliban are responsible for five times as many civilian casualties as the coalition forces here.'”
“The population’s main concern ‘is not about us staying. It’s about us going,’ he said. ‘The great thing about the Taliban is that they haven’t been reading their Chairman Mao. They don’t have popular support. They’re trying to swim in a sea that doesn’t exist.’
“He claimed that recent Taliban attacks, such as the suicide bombing of a police academy bus in Kabul at the weekend which killed 35 people, was a sign the organisation was getting desperate and was ‘on the back foot’.
Coles’ claims sound just like a brand new bucket of the same old crap we’ve been hearing for the past six years. Ever notice how each one of these guys takes his turn assuring us the Taliban are done, finished and yet they somehow defy the predictions and come back stronger and more murderous than ever? But Sir Sherard clearly knows who’s paying his rent.
June 19, 2007
The United States is no longer the top dog when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions. Years earlier than predicted, China has now overtaken the US.
According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, soaring demand for coal to generate electricity and a surge in cement production have helped to push China’s recorded emissions for 2006 beyond those from the US already. It says China produced 6,200m tonnes of CO2 last year, compared with 5,800m tonnes from the US.
It’s important to remember that China’s increase in GHG emissions isn’t offset by reductions somewhere else. It’s in addition to the already massive emissions from other nations, particularly the industrialized West.
June 19, 2007
China has but 7% of the world’s arable farmland to feed 20% of the world’s population. The math isn’t good and it’s getting worse by the day.
Fully one-third of China is now desert and that’s spreading. From the Associated Press:
“In a problem that’s pervasive in much of China, over-farming has drawn down the water table so low that desert is overtaking farmland. Authorities have ordered farmers here in Gansu province to vacate their properties over the next 3 1/2 years, and will replace 20 villages with newly planted grass in a final effort to halt the advance of the Tengger and Badain Jaran deserts.
“The relocation program is part of a larger plan to rein in China’s expanding deserts, which now cover one-third of the country and continue to grow because of overgrazing, deforestation, urban sprawl and droughts.
“The shifting sands have swallowed thousands of Chinese villages along the fabled Silk Road and sparked a sharp increase in sandstorms; dust from China clouds the skies of South Korea and has been linked to respiratory problems in California.
“The battle against deserts is playing out across much of western China. Desertification has caused as much as $7 billion in annual economic losses, the China Daily reported.
“Over the past decade, Chinese deserts expanded at a rate of 950 square miles a year, according to Wang Tao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Lanzhou.
“‘There are quite a few countries with this problem but none on the scale of China because it is so big,’ said Lester Brown, president of Earth Policy Institute. ‘You only have to go to northwest China and see that the numbers and size of dust storms are increasing.’
“Expanding deserts have contributed to a nearly six-fold increase in sandstorms in the past 50 years to two dozen annually, Wang said.
“Global warming will worsen the problem, as rising temperatures lead to widespread drought and melt most glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau, depriving lakes and rivers of a crucial water source, according to the U.N.-funded Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
June 19, 2007
While the global warming denialists are back at it again, a group of the most prominent climate change experts are warning that the latest IPCC reports have actually understated the true dangers of global warming.
“‘Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures,’ the scientists say. Only intense efforts to curb man-made emissions of carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases can keep the climate within or near the range of the past one million years, they add. From The Independent:
“The researchers were led by James Hansen, the director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who was the first scientist to warn the US Congress about global warming.
“The other scientists were Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha and Gary Russell, also of the Goddard Institute, David Lea of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Mark Siddall of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York.
“In an email to The Independent, Dr Hansen said: ‘In my opinion, among our papers this one probably does the best job of making clear that the Earth is getting perilously close to climate changes that could run out of our control.’
“The unnatural ‘forcing’ of the climate as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases threatens to generate a ‘flip’ in the climate that could ‘spark a cataclysm’ in the massive ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, the scientists write.
“Dramatic flips in the climate have occurred in the past but none has happened since the development of complex human societies and civilisation, which are unlikely to survive the same sort of environmental changes if they occurred now.
“‘Civilisation developed, and constructed extensive infrastructure, during a period of unusual climate stability, the Holocene, now almost 12,000 years in duration. That period is about to end,’ the scientists warn. Humanity cannot afford to burn the Earth’s remaining underground reserves of fossil fuel. ‘To do so would guarantee dramatic climate change, yielding a different planet from the one on which civilisation developed and for which extensive physical infrastructure has been built,’ they say.
“Dr Hansen said we have about 10 years to put into effect the draconian measures needed to curb CO2 emissions quickly enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperature. Otherwise, the extra heat could trigger the rapid melting of polar ice sheets, made far worse by the “albedo flip” – when the sunlight reflected by white ice is suddenly absorbed as ice melts to become the dark surface of open water.
“‘The glaciers and ice sheets of Greenland in the northern hemisphere, and the western Antarctic ice sheet in the south, both show signs of the rapid changes predicted with rising temperatures. ‘
“‘The albedo flip property of ice/water provides a trigger mechanism. If the trigger mechanism is engaged long enough, multiple dynamical feedbacks will cause ice sheet collapse,’ the scientists say. ‘We argue that the required persistence for this trigger mechanism is at most a century, probably less.’
What it all comes down to is that, if these eminent scientists – the people who’ve been focused on this problem for the past two decades – are right, we don’t have enough time left to afford the sort of windowdressing measures envisioned by Harpo. If they’re right, our earth and our civilization are in very real peril right now.
It comes down to a question of who and what you want to believe. If you don’t want to believe these claims do yourself a favour and don’t go near the vast body of scientific literature upon which they’re based. If you don’t want to believe it, read the next post and you’ll find out how to make it all go away.
June 19, 2007
The National Post is at it again. It’s “Junk Science” week at NatPo, meaning a whole week of drivel from business reporter Terence Corcoran.
The bottom line is that any finding that doesn’t suit Corcoran’s pro-business/pro-growth biases is simply junk. Why? Because Corcoran says so.
Don’t take my word for it. Do a quick Google search on Corcoran and you’ll find all you need to know about this crank. It’s no coincidence he’s at Asper’s National Post.
June 19, 2007
These are Taliban. You can kill these.
These are kids. Don’t kill these.
More fighting in southern Afghanistan. The Taliban evidently didn’t get the message that they’ve been reduced to hit and run tactics, the victory message that NATO proclaimed to us just weeks ago.
Accounts from the battles seem confused. What is known is that Taliban forces have taken two areas, one in the Dutch-held province or Uruzgan and the other in Canada’s Kandahar province.
An official close to the governor of Uruzgan said 70 to 75 civilians were killed or wounded, while more than 100 Taliban and more than 35 police were killed.
NATO spokesman Maj. John Thomas said he doubted that Afghan officials could tell the difference between civilians and militants, suggesting some of the wounded who claimed to be civilians were insurgents. I don’t know whether the Afghan officials can tell the difference but what is obvious is that NATO itself either can’t or can’t be bothered. Hey guys, look for the beards! That’s a dead giveaway.
June 19, 2007
One of the key problems in global warming is aircraft emissions.
The world’s fleet of roughly 17,000 commerical aircraft produces a terrific amount of greenhouse gases which it also emits at high altitude where the effects are considerably more pronounced. Even the aircraft condensation trails (those white plumes you sometimes see overhead) are problematic because they trap the heat of sunlight.
The trouble is, nobody wants to take the blame for aviation GHGs. As George Monbiot explains in his book Heat, Tony Blair’s ambitious target for British GHG emission reductions doesn’t take into account aircraft emissions or their planned increase. He notes that, even if Britain otherwise meets its GHG reduction targets, the increased GHG from expanded commercial aviation will more than offset that. As Monbiot points out, Britain is embarked on an ambitious aviation expansion programme including new airport construction that adds the equivalent of one Heathrow per year.
Is this really true? All you need to do is read Boeing press releases to see that it’s very true. Four years ago, Boeing predicted the commercial fleet would double to 34,000 aircraft by 2022. Boeing last week estimated that the global market would grow by almost 27,000 planes worth $2.8 trillion in the next 20 years, with 36% of that growth coming from Asia-Pacific.
This represents a massive increase in commerical aviation in just two decades and, despite the faint promises of cleaner technologies to come, we’re going to be stuck with today’s technology for the foreseeable future.
The biggest problem at the moment is that world governments continue to be reluctant to recognize this problem. Nobody wants to add aviation GHGs to their carbon equation. That would throw the books right out the window. Ultimately only governments can take responsibility for curbing aviation GHG emissions. Until that happens, take any of their climate change promises with a very large grain of salt.
June 19, 2007
The West has been tinkering with Afghanistan for six years, Iraq for four, and all we have to show for it are two, Top Ten Failed States. Now, to be fair, Afghanistan only ranks #8. Iraq, however, comes in at a strong #2 trailing only Sudan.
The 2007 Failed State Index, published in Foreign Policy magazine, noted that conditions have steadily worsened in both Iraq and Afghanistan:
“Iraq and Afghanistan, the two main fronts in the global war on terror, both suffered over the past year. Their experiences show that billions of dollars in development and security aid may be futile unless accompanied by a functioning government, trustworthy leaders, and realistic plans to keep the peace and develop the economy. Just as there are many paths to success, there are many paths to failure for states on the edge.”
Compounding the worsening state of these two nations is the fact that the people of the Western states whose armies are propping them up are growing impatient and want their forces out. This is a reality already impacting on the conflict in both countries. Let’s face it, the bad guys know we’re lost our zeal for this half-hearted effort.
While the Afghan and Iraqi people may pay the price for our foolishness, there are valuable lessons to be learned by Western leaders with no understanding of war and little military knowledge.
Don’t wage war unless it’s absolutely essential.
Don’t wage war without the means and the commitment to see the fight through to real victory within a reasonable time. Go Big and then Go Home. Wars without end don’t sell for long.
Fighting a tactical war isn’t enough. You must also fight a strategic war.
Don’t take public support for granted. Explain clearly what the war is about and how you intend to achieve your goals. You can’t wage protracted war on a foundation of platitudes. Be honest and completely candid. Your people have to know and they have to approve. Don’t make promises you can’t fulfill. There is no surer way to undermine public support.
Never underestimate the size of the war you’re undertaking to fight. Go in prepared for the worst case and, once in, focus your attention and your forces on winning the fight.
One reason that the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq are going so poorly while public support for our intervention evaporates is that our leaders – Bush, Blair and Harpo – have ignored these basic principles. They never went big, they went small. They’ve been waging their war on a foundation of platitudes. They haven’t explained what these wars are truly about or how they intend to win because they don’t know. In both cases they woefully underestimated the size of the fight, causing the conflicts to drag on inconclusively. In many respects their lack of planning and shortage of resources has allowed the tactical initiative to fall to the bad guys. They’ve saddled their forces with a tactical war and no means to fight, much less win, the strategic war.
When these wars are consigned to the history books there will be plenty of blame to spread around but the lion’s share will have to go to an utter and chronic failure of political leadership. Today’s Afghanistan and today’s Iraq are very much the product of inept Western leaders.
June 19, 2007
It’s already begun. Thousands have been fleeing the drought parched sub-Saharan regions in a desperate attempt to find refuge in Europe. But that’s just a sneak peek at what’s to come.
Reuters reports that another group has concluded that the earth could see a billion climate-displaced refugees by 2050. Think about that. One billion people looking for a new place to live, not to mention water and food and other resources from the places they migrate to.
Logic holds that the first places they will reach won’t be much better off than the places they left. These migrants will arrive and look to survive off lands and people already under climate stress. Who is going to get the food and who is going to get the water? How do you think those questions will be decided? A lottery perhaps or a gun?
A lot of the migrants will probably die or be killed off before they get more than a few hundred miles but plenty will get through. From Reuters:
“‘All around the world, predictable patterns are going to result in very long-term and very immediate changes in the ability of people to earn their livelihoods,’ said Michele Klein Solomon of the International Organisation of Migration (IOM).
“‘It’s pretty overwhelming to see what we might be facing in the next 50 years,’ she said. ‘And it’s starting now.’
“People forced to move by climate change, salination, rising sea levels, deforestation or desertification do not fit the classic definition of refugees — those who leave their homeland to escape persecution or conflict and who need protection.
“But the world’s welcome even for these people is wearing thin, just as United Nations figures show that an exodus from Iraq has reversed a five-year decline in overall refugee numbers.
Governments and aid agencies are straining to cope with the 10 million whose plight risks being obscured by debates over a far larger tide of economic migrants — and perhaps future waves of fugitives from environmental mayhem.”
“‘They used to be welcomed as people fleeing persecution, but this has been changing — certainly since 9/11, but even before then,’ said William Spindler, a UNHCR spokesman in Geneva.
“‘Growing xenophobia, intolerance, political manipulation by populist politicians who mix up the issues — the whole debate on asylum and migration has been confused,’ he said.
“Whatever their motives, migrants deserve to be treated with dignity and as human beings, he added. ‘We have seen people in the Mediterranean in boats or hanging onto fishing nets for days while states discuss who should rescue them.’
So while we debate the niceties of just how little GHG Canada produces and why we should have to accept even the modest Kyoto targets until China does, remember that we’re not going to be immune from this exodus. In fact, given our advantaged position, we’ll probably be a prime target.
June 18, 2007
So, while they’re working furiously to persuade Canadians that they really do get the whole global warming thing, Harpo and his Harpies have decided the way to show their green credentials is to sponsor a fossil fuel guzzlin’, GHG spewin’ NASCAR race machine.
Yeah, sure Steve, global warming is the greatest threat facing mankind, eh? When you said that you really meant it, eh? Maybe on the hood of the car you could paint the conservative logo and, underneath that, the worlds “greatest threat facing mankind.” Eh?
By the say, Steve, it’d be a great touch to get Baird behind the wheel, eh?
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