The Mound of Sound

George Bush hails Tony Blair’s decision to begin withdrawing British troops from Iraq as a sign of real success but then again he would, wouldn’t he?

An analysis in today’s Telegraph suggests the Brits are looking to leave because they’re done as much as they can and that falls far short of any future guarantees for the people in Basra:

“It is now over to the Iraqi security forces to prove that the last four years of training and experience has been sufficient for them to hold the line against the inevitable onslaught as various factions vie for power.

“The local police and border guards can largely be discounted as unreliable, penetrated by insurgents and substantially influenced by Iran.

“Indeed the manipulation of Tehran can be found permeating the highest echelons of Basra society.

“The police will essentially follow whoever proves to be the strongest leader as we enter the conflict’s next stage.

“All that stands in the way of the local militias’ rule of terror is the 10th Division of the Iraqi army.

“If the 10th Division can hold the line against the warring tribal factions, who are mainly fighting for control of smuggling and the bigger prize of the south’s huge oil reserves, then the billions of pounds and 132 British lives would not have been in vain over the last four years.

“But if the writ of Baghdad central government fails in Basra, a quick and bloody round of civil war will follow.

“Certainly the 200,000 Sunnis living in the area along with the tiny Christian population will face ethnic cleansing at the hands of the Shia majority.

“Then the various Shia factions will turn on themselves before the strongest side emerges. This will probably be someone from the Mahdi army, loyal to the troublesome cleric Moqtada al Sadr.
“The 2,500 British troops in the city can also expect much greater violence as the insurgents target them in a battle to prove who is strongest – measured in terms of foreign soldiers killed. “

The report warns that we won’t hear much of future carnage in Basra. The place is simply too dangerous for reporters to visit.

The reality is inescapable. Without restoring peace to Basra and security to southern Iraq, Tony Blair is “cutting and running” at least by the definition of that harped by Bush and Cheney over the past three years. The only saving grace is that Tony hasn’t mentioned that he’ll be getting the rest of the British contingent out by 2008 at the latest.

Meanwhile Dick Cheney is proclaiming to anyone who’ll still listen to him that he wants American forces to leave Iraq “with honour.” Wait a second, “peace with honour,” where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, that was the line from Kissinger and Nixon before that last helicopter lifted off from Saigon.

The Canadian Judicial Council is standing up to Harpo and his effort to undermine the independence of the judiciary in our country.

The council, following former Chief Justice Antonio Lamer and others, has told the megalomaniacal Harpie that it sees real problems in our Furious Leader’s decision to stack juicial advisory committees with government appointees. As a clear sign of just how pathetically ignorant Harper is about the judiciary, he’s planning on putting cops and laypeople – but only those of his own ilk of course – on these committees to stack the deck.

Pointing out the obvious, that loading the committees with Harpo clones kind of undermines the intended independence of the committees, the Judicial Council drew a clear line in the sand, “The Canadian Judicial Council accepts, despite these changes to the Advisory Committees, that judges can continue to participate in the deliberations of the Advisory Committees, but only if the principle of judicial independence is respected and judicial candidates are recommended strictly on the basis of merits.”

If the judges walk out of the advisory committees it will completely gut their authority and leave Harpo exposed as a two-bit pol who would be much better suited to a place like Mississippi than Ottawa.

A measure of Harpo’s sincerity on global warming can be found in his finance minister’s disclosure of further tax cuts in the budget the government will table next month.

If the government does plan to tackle GHG emissions this is the time for it to be filling the government’s coffers, not emptying them. The job it has pledged to undertake isn’t going to be cheap, far from it.

Like almost any major initiative, tackling global warming is going to take regulations and incentives. It cannot succeed unless the private sector and the general public can be brought to support it. Without achieving an adequate level of support from industry and the public, what remains except punitive legislation?

Cutting CO2 emissions requires sacrifice from all sectors of society. The impact of that sacrifice is going to vary considerably. There are some industries, for example, that may require temporary help in the forms of loans or grants to convert systems and adopt new technologies to cut their GHG emissions. It’s not realistic to expect companies that are already marginal to meet GHG targets without some assistance.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s talk about tax cuts and other aspects of his budget suggests the global warming issue isn’t even on his radar. If Harpo was sincere about this it would be obvious in Flaherty’s priorities.

I’ve been challenged by the anti-Kyoto types who visit this website to come up with the names of IPCC scientists. It seems that, until someone gives them actual identities, they’ll construe the IPCC as some dark conspiracy to dupe the public about global warming.

Let’s put this nonsense to rest. If you want identities, you can start here:

Contributing authors for WG1:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/558.htm

Reviewers for WG1:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/559.htm

I realize you’re not going to bother to follow this up. If you were genuinely after names and credentials you would have made the simple effort to find this information yourself. You didn’t which suggests you’re more interested in your own delusions than getting to the facts.

By the way, for those who swooned at the Fraser Institute’s ludicrous response to the IPCC report, check out the rebuttal posted at www.realclimate.org . You’ll see how cheaply FI holds its own reputation.

The Baghdad “Surge” has won a big, thumbs down in today’s editorial in the Iraqi online news site, Azzaman:

“Iraqis hoped that the cells of terror and violence will be dealt a heavy blow in the early days of the operation, but the course of events shows that most probably the opposite is happening.

“This operation like the ones preceding it is lame and has no proper legs to stand on.

“It emanates from the wrong proposition that Iraq’s complicated crisis can easily be solved through military means – a ‘surge’, in U.S. words, in the number of troops on the streets of Baghdad.

“Militias, insurgents, terrorists, or criminal gangs, accused of spreading terror in Iraq, know exactly how to utilize the operation for their benefit.

The editorial suggests that Iraqi PM Maliki is exploiting the surge:

“The Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government is itself tainted with sectarian strife and squabbling.

“Even the operation is sectarian in approach as it has so far targeted certain areas of the capital and left others untouched.

“Maliki appears, according to certain reports, to have notified the militias and leaders of certain factions, like the Mahdi Army of Moqtada Sadr of the objectives and aims of the operation.

“As a result, many believe that Sadr’s militias, accused of some of the most horrific sectarian killings, will escape the campaign unscathed.”

How would you do it? How would you kill the public demand for action on global warming?

I don’t believe for a minute that Harpo sees Kyoto as anything but a diabolical socialist scheme. Let’s face it, our Furious Leader only turned green when he realized his anti-Kyoto crusade could forever wipe out any chance for him to get a majority government.

So, bowing to the inevitable, the Reform conservative became an overnight environmentalist, right? Yeah, right.

Say what you like about the guy, Harper is a shamelessly cynical man propelled by sharp political skills. Like his American Idol, he knows that saying one thing and doing another can pay off rather well.

So you’ve now positioned yourself as a global warming champion to bring yourself into line with public opinion. At this point you’ve got two choices – either deliver or persuade the public they really don’t want you to deliver after all.

How do you go about killing the public outcry for action? There’ll always be some clamour but it’s enough if you can get the majority to come alongside.

You could always resort to the tried and true tactic of the right – fear. Tell the public wild tales about what Kyoto would do to them. Paint them a picture of living in mud huts with no lights or heat. Then come up with something you call an alternative plan, something riddled with ambiguity and escape clauses, something that will get you through the next election without having to rein in your buddies in Big Oil. A one-two punch – fear and confusion. That should do it.

I think Harpo’s overnight, poll-driven conversion is a scam and, if that’s right, what he comes up with will simply be a follow-on scam.

What do you think? How do you think he’s going to handle the global warming issue?

One of the problems besetting Afghanistan’s future is the power of the country’s warlords. Many of them are known to have criminal and drug associations, some are outright thugs. But the president, Hamid Karzai, is able to keep his office only with their support.

The map above shows how much of Afghanistan is under warlord rule. This map is about three years out of date. The red part, representing the Taliban, would be rather larger today.