The Mound of Sound

It works like this: Bush appeases Musharraf, Musharraf appeases Waziristan, and Waziristan appeases the Taliban which then besets Afghanistan.

What ever happened to that nonsense about “you’re either with us or you’re with the terrorists”? You’re not supposed to be able to be with both and yet that’s the dilemma of Pakistan today.

Pakistan is ruled by a strongman who is also, in many ways, incredibly weak and vulnerable. President General Musharraf’s hold on power is tenuous and subject to the whims of his fellow officers and intelligence agency. He knows there are people and groups who are waiting for the chance to kill him. They’ve already tried and they’ve come close.

The tribes of Waziristan have very divided loyalties. They’re more apt to consider themselves Balochs and Pashtuns first and Pakistanis only reluctantly. They don’t hold much love for the Arab jihadis, al-Qaeda, but the Taliban are kith and kin.

Here’s how the International Crisis Group sees the problem:

“The military operations Pakistan has launched since 2004 in South and North Waziristan Agencies to deny al-Qaeda and the Taliban safe haven and curb cross-border militancy have failed, largely due to an approach alternating between excessive force and appeasement. When force has resulted in major military losses, the government has amnestied pro-Taliban militants in return for verbal commitments to end attacks on Pakistani security forces and empty pledges to cease cross-border militancy and curb foreign terrorists.

“The government reached accords with pro-Taliban militants in April 2004 in South Waziristan and on 5 September 2006 in North Waziristan. These were brokered by the pro-Taliban Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), the largest component of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), the ruling six-party religious alliance in Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and Musharraf’s coalition partner in the Balochistan provincial government. Following the September accord, the government released militants, returned their weapons, disbanded security check posts and agreed to allow foreign terrorists to stay if they gave up violence. While the army has virtually retreated to barracks, this accommodation facilitates the growth of militancy and attacks in Afghanistan by giving pro-Taliban elements a free hand to recruit, train and arm.

“Badly planned, poorly conducted military operations are also responsible for the rise of militancy in the tribal belt, where the loss of lives and property and displacement of thousands of civilians have alienated the population. The state’s failure to extend its control over and provide good governance to its citizens in FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Areas] is equally responsible for empowering the radicals. The only sustainable way of dealing with the challenges of militancy, governance and extremism in FATA is through the rule of law and an extension of civil and political rights. Instead, the government has reinforced administrative and legal structures that undermine the state and spur anarchy.”

It’s hard to believe that Musharraf has escaped US pressure to shut down these Taliban strongholds. Washington must understand that there is only so far that their ally in the war on terror can go without himself being deposed by the dangerous Islamists lurking in the wings. When it comes right down to it, keeping Musharraf in place and coping with the Taliban problem may be seen as preferrable to Muslim extremists getting control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

The Times of London

Poor old Tony Blair. The way things are going, he’ll be lucky if he doesn’t get a boatride through Traitors’ Gate.

It looks as though Tony was lying trough his teeth about Iraqi WMDs in the run-up to the invasion and conquest. Here’s the scoop from The Independent:

“The Government’s case for going to war in Iraq has been torn apart by the publication of previously suppressed evidence that Tony Blair lied over Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction.

“A devastating attack on Mr Blair’s justification for military action by Carne Ross, Britain’s key negotiator at the UN, has been kept under wraps until now because he was threatened with being charged with breaching the Official Secrets Act.

“In the testimony revealed today Mr Ross, 40, who helped negotiate several UN security resolutions on Iraq, makes it clear that Mr Blair must have known Saddam Hussein possessed no weapons of mass destruction. He said that during his posting to the UN, “at no time did HMG [Her Majesty’s Government] assess that Iraq’s WMD (or any other capability) posed a threat to the UK or its interests.”

“Mr Ross revealed it was a commonly held view among British officials dealing with Iraq that any threat by Saddam Hussein had been “effectively contained”.

“He also reveals that British officials warned US diplomats that bringing down the Iraqi dictator would lead to the chaos the world has since witnessed. “I remember on several occasions the UK team stating this view in terms during our discussions with the US (who agreed),” he said.

“”At the same time, we would frequently argue when the US raised the subject, that ‘regime change’ was inadvisable, primarily on the grounds that Iraq would collapse into chaos.'”

“Mr Ross’s evidence directly challenges the assertions by the Prime Minster that the war was legally justified because Saddam possessed WMDs which could be “activated” within 45 minutes and posed a threat to British interests. These claims were also made in two dossiers, subsequently discredited, in spite of the advice by Mr Ross.

“His hitherto secret evidence threatens to reopen the row over the legality of the conflict, under which Mr Blair has sought to draw a line as the internecine bloodshed in Iraq has worsened.”

“Just Keep a Straight Face, Tony”

If Tony Blair lied Britain into the Iraq War, it’s pretty obvious that George Bush lied Congress and the American people into this also. This isn’t an impeachable offence, it’s treason – treachery on a grand scale that has set the whole Middle East on fire. It’s a betrayal of the British people and the American people and it’s a betrayal of the NATO nations who’ve had to shoulder the fight against the Taliban because of these damned lies.

Stphen Harper wants parliament to let him keep governing so he can sort out the mess he’s made of the Tory’s environmental policy. Mr. “So-called Greenhouse Gases” himself has obviously heard he alarm bells ringing in his head that he’s in serious trouble on this issue.

Harper is like Bush. He screws up and wants to start over again. His principles from last month go into the rotary file while he finds new principles on Ebay.

Here’s his problem. Nothing is dearer to Stephen Harper than Alberta. His adopted home province, Alberta, is expected to soon edge out his original home province, Ontario, as Canada’s main greenhouse gas emitter. Cracking down on GHG emissions means lowering the boom on Alberta and that means that province’s bountiful tar sands.

Is Harper going to choose Canada over Alberta? What are the chances? If his government does last long enough to throw on a layer of green makeup, it’ll probably be just a lot more shuckin’ and jivin’ replete with ambiguity and weasel words. He’s been around long enough to show us that’s the way he does things.

There are some serious political consequences to going green particularly when you head the party that’s the natural home to global warming deniers. More time? No way.

According to the Toronto Star, the Green party is cozying up to the Dion Libs.

“In separate news conferences on Parliament Hill yesterday, new Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and Green Leader Elizabeth May, who was elected only a few months previously, appeared to be signalling that their two parties could work together.

“May was the most explicit, saying that Dion’s election as Liberal leader this month will help her party because realism dictates that the Greens, with no seats in Parliament yet, need to work with a mainstream, established Canadian political force.

“She appeared to rule out that possibility with Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and had only faint praise for New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton on this score.

“‘Although many Canadians, myself included, yearn for the day of a Green party majority government, we simply don’t have time,’ said May, after praising Dion’s achievements on the environment, especially a plan for Canada to live up to its commitment under the Kyoto climate-change protocol.

“‘He’s certainly the best the Liberals had on offer,’ May said. ‘He was a very, very good environment minister.'”

May’s deferential endorsement is a real boost for Dion. The one who must be really licking his wounds today is Layton whose NDP has been tanking in the polls.

NATO forces, together with Afghan army units, are massing in the Panjwai district of Kandahar province for… well for what isn’t exactly clear.

While the force was under the command of Canadian General David Fraser, the focus was mainly on combat missions against the Taliban. Fraser’s Dutch replacement, Maj-Gen. Ton Van Loon, wants to put more effort into reconstruction and infrastructure projects.

“The main aim of Operation Baaz Tsuka is to work together with tribal elders and district leaders to provide vital assistance and targeted development directly to the people of Zahre and Panjwaii districts,” said Maj.-Gen. Ton Van Loon, head of Regional Command-South for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force.

Tribal elders and district leaders were extensively consulted in the buildup to the operation, which was planned jointly by Afghan security forces and ISAF, Van Loon said.

A report in the Toronto Star quotes Canadian commander, Lt.-General Mike Gauthier, as saying the Canadian force will have to make do with its existing force which he said is undermanned for the task of controlling Kandahar province.

“Public perceptions of corruption, inequity and fear are the driving force behind support to terrorist organizations.”

The curse of Afghanistan again. Actually, no. This comes from US Army Colonel, David Sutherland, trying to explain why tribals in his area of Baqouba are turning violent. From The Guardian:

“Tribal leaders and some political groups in the strife-ridden Iraqi province of Diyala are turning to terrorists and insurgents for protection rather than trust Iraqi soldiers and police, the commander of U.S. forces in that area said Friday.

“‘This sort of unity only worsens the sectarian divide and encourages further violence,” said Col. David Sutherland, commander of the 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division.

“He said he is trying to turn that around by putting Iraqi police through more rigorous training, placing more U.S. advisers in the Iraqi army and police units and through Iraqi efforts to recruit a police and army force that better reflects the sectarian makeup of Diyala, which is about 55 percent Sunni, 30 percent Shiite and 15 percent Kurd.

“Currently the Iraqi security forces in Diyala are predominantly Shiite, Sutherland said.”

It’s probably only coincidence. It’s gotta be coincidence. Surely it’s only coincidence, right?

Japan’s new government, sort of like “Canada’s new goverment” has taken a certain hard turn to the right, toward nationalism, not like the old kind that brought us all together sixty years ago but in the same direction.

Part of this effort has been to upgrade Japan’s self-defence force from a department into a full-blown ministry. That was done today.

Slipped in alongside the military’s upgrade was legislation requiring Japanese schools to boost students’ patriotism.

“The new education law will allow children to acquire a good understanding of their heritage and become intelligent and dignified Japanese,” ruling party lawmaker Hiroo Nakashima said during the upper house debate.

“Critics, however, attacked the move as harkening back to Japan’s war-era education system, in which children were instructed to support the country’s imperialist military and sacrifice themselves for the emperor and nation.

“The government is putting the future of Japanese children at risk and turning Japan into a country that wages war abroad,” said Ikuko Ishii, a Communist Party lawmaker.

“The upgrading of the Defense Agency under the Cabinet Office to a full ministry passed Parliament without significant opposition, propelled by deep concern in Japan over North Korean missile and nuclear weapons development.

“The upgrade, to be effected early next year, gives Japan’s generals greater budgetary powers and prestige – a reversal for a military establishment that has kept a low profile since being discredited by Japan’s disastrous wartime defeat.

The call for more patriotism in the schools coincides with a push by some local governments to crack down on teachers and students who refuse to stand for the national flag or sing an anthem to the emperor at school ceremonies.

George Bush long ago announced his intention that America have a new generation of nuclear weapons. North Korea has since tested a device and we’re told that Iran is working on its own. The Arab states, including America’s allies, have said they’d like to experiment with ‘peaceful’ nuclear technology. And now it’s Russia, a nation that’s rapidly sliding back toward its totalitarian roots.

The Guardian reports that Russia wants to spruce up its missile arsenal, replacing the old single, warheads with multiple warheads, sort of like putting a racing engine in the old Chevy.

Czar/President Vladimir Putin says the deployment of Topol-M missiles on mobile launchers was a “serious step forward in strengthening Russia’s defense capability.”